Friday, 19 April 2013

Austerity Still Isn't Working

It’s not just me or other similarly disposed commentators saying that austerity does not work. Included now are that unexpected group of radicals known as the International Monetary Fund – the IMF. The IMF have now downgraded their growth forecasts for the UK for this year and next. This is the way that growth forecasts, for what they are worth, go under austerity – inexorably downhill.
Austerity is a creeping disaster in more senses than one - as an economic 'policy' in terms of indebtedness, the size of Gross Domestic Product, its distribution and, even more importantly, in terms of the growing legions of the unemployed - young people and younger adults included. There could hardly be a more tragic waste.
The great mystery to me is that anyone could ever have thought that swinging the axe in a recession could possibly work to the benefit of the economy. Even with a compliant selection of economists telling ministers what they wanted to hear you would have thought that some sense would have crept in.
Apparently they continue to think that fasting creates strength and they and their acolytes continue to trot out their party line and sounding even more like a broken record. Witness also that bastion of logic the Institute for Economic Affairs, to quote; “Weak growth forecasts simply underscore that we are spending more than we can realistically afford.” So by implication their advice is for deeper cuts. To give a 19th century translation “the patient is weakening so apply more leaches.”
They and the Chancellor know perfectly well that a policy of austerity is not working. The rest of us know that it never will, but in order to preserve their egos and the favoured position of their rich friends the government continues to bleed the patient.
The official opposition, such as it has been, is not distancing itself sufficiently from the government’s policy of draconian cuts. Indeed a certain former Prime Minister whose ability to assess complex situations – such as WMD – is renowned, is urging the opposition to accept the principle and level of the cuts overall.
I sincerely hope that the opposition leadership do not listen to this siren calling and get drawn onto the rocks of ‘triangulation’. Far better to be a party of conviction and good economic sense.
Too many metaphors already here I’ll admit - so no more! Simply to reiterate that there are positive alternatives, for example as set out in earlier postings on this blog and by much more widely read national observers. I hope that we do not have to suffer another two years of miserable and partisan austerity before the country can make a new beginning in which we could, at long last, all be in it together.

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