Austerity Isn't Working

In more senses than one - as an economic 'policy' in terms of the size of Gross Domestic Product and, even more importantly, in terms of the growing legions of the unemployed - young people and younger adults included. This is a really tragic waste. The mystery to me is that anyone could ever have thought that swinging the axe in a recession could possibly work - or that they could continue to think that it still will.

But this, I'm afraid, is what the Government appears to think - and the official opposition, such as it is, is not distancing itself sufficiently from the policies of draconian cuts which may, in part, account for its indifferent showing in the opinion polls to date.

Technical note: time travel is not possible either, but the government is doing its best to send us all back to the 1930s anyway.

But I guess we're all getting tired of the unsurprising slew of bad news on the economic front - so what's good recently? Well, the good news is that (a) the solar system has not been sucked into a super-massive black hole and (b) the Higgs boson might or might not have been found and (c) Tracey Emin is now a professor of drawing.

Er, on reflection maybe there should be just two items on this list...

Space Sunset?

In fact, sunset on Mars! The beautiful photo in the previous posting was taken by one of the Mars Rovers. Sunset colours on Mars appear the opposite of those typically seen on Earth. The central blue glow appears when the Martian atmosphere scatters the sunlight, the same phenomenon that makes the Earth’s sky blue. Powdery dust suspended in the atmosphere gives the rest of the sky a copper colour. The Sun appears only about two-thirds the size that it does on the Earth. The New York Times has more great photos in a recent feature.

Alas, the sunset could signify the space programme itself, principally the United States but more widely around the world too. The US programme is in decline notwithstanding the successful launch of the highly complex Mars Science Laboratory (MSL). Over the years NASA has done a truly great job - as have all the planetary astronomers and scientists and engineers associated with it. Not always the cheapest way but always the very highest quality which has given inspiration to millions across the world.

We recently saw the last of the space shuttle, leaving the US without the ability to put a man into earth orbit let alone on the Moon or Mars. The astronauts of the Apollo era would never have believed that this position could have been reached - they were talking about a manned mission to Mars by the 1980s! Let us hope that the projected heavy lift launcher actually does make it off the ground at some point and is not also cancelled like its predecessor. Incidentally, contrary to press impressions, in its original incarnation it will not be as powerful as the Saturn 5 (the plans for which, incredibly, were destroyed).

The Mars programme has been dropped (as was the plan for a return to the Moon) and there is now no coherent or consistent vision for manned spaceflight. The suggested visit to an 'asteroid' does not mean a trip to the asteroid belt but trying to get on to a near-earth object passing by. While manned spaceflight is expensive it is a mere fraction of the colossal sums spent on weaponry year in and year out - much of which is useless.

It is very disappointing that the most intelligent US President we've ever seen has not managed to re-ignite the vision - although he does have the dire, cuts-obsessed Tea Party fundamentalists to contend with. It does not have to be this way but I see little hope of re-inspiration and a consistent programme that is adhered to.

In terms of robotic exploration there will also be at least a long and significant gap. There's nothing big on the blocks for launching after MSL although we await the images from the New Horizons probe (NASA's mission to Pluto and beyond with closest Pluto approach in July 2015) and the Dawn mission's approach to Ceres in February 2015. These really will be something special. Thank you NASA.

There's a danger of the engineering and scientific skills and can-do capacity being lost and along with it the chance of much closer study and possible landing on the Jovian satellite Europa - the best prospect for life in the Solar System in my view including Mars. The SETI (search for extra terrestrial intelligence) programme was only recently saved from cutbacks by a vigorous voluntary campaign of fundraising (which included actress Jodie Foster the star of 'Contact').

The European Space Agency's Programme offers some mild encouragement including the Mars sample return mission pencilled in for 2020/2022 although missions here too must be vulnerable to the chronic financial crisis faced by many European economies. But I would say it's an ideal time to invest and stimulate not 'carry on cutting'. It's a bit worrying because if you check the ESA website you'll find that much of the 'news' is out of date.

Russia has retained a good, reliable capacity to put humans into earth orbit but the recent loss of its Mars / Phobos probe in Earth orbit suggests that their testing is still not rigorous enough - a problem dating back to the long lamented Saturn-class N1 rocket. The website of the Russian Federal Space Agency, Roscosmos, has a lot of official prose but is low on inspiring projects.

In the long run the best hope for a revitalised manned space programme is China. They see the significance of this and they think long. having been allowed to acquire our industry and technology they have the industrial and growing scientific base. They will definitely go to the Moon in the 2020s (as long as their country remains stable) and they will not stop there. In terms of space and, as with industry, of our own doing, the sun sets in the West - but it rises again in the East.

Sunset

A beautiful and unusual sunset photograph - but where was the picture taken and what could it be taken to signify?
The answer and more in the next posting.

Please Mind the Gaps!

You may have noticed the not so subtle differences between the claims made by the Chancellor about who got hit in the Autumn Statement (not to mention the other austerity measures) and the truth of the matter.

There's a lot of this about! If you travel into the city by train you'll be familiar with the ever-repeated health and safety / insurance recording played as stations are neared: "We are now approaching (name of station). Please mind the gap between the platform and the train."

While hearing this again for the umpteenth time it occurred to me that there is in fact potential for much wider application in other walks of life - for instance politics and economics as well as budget statements: "We are now approaching a budget. Please mind the gap between the rich and the rest."

Perhaps there should be a similar warning at election times when we appear to enter one of the late Steve Jobs' 'Reality Distortion Fields': "We are now approaching an election. Please mind the gap between promises and delivery." And how about this one: "We are now approaching a recession. Please mind the gap between forecasts and reality."

Plenty of scope here I think!

Imminent Recession? Now there's a Surprise!

Various agencies are now 'forecasting' a return to recession for our economy either in this quarter or the first quarter of 2012. How very profound. Government ministers seem shocked and set to pin the blame on Europe this time. The 'blame their predecessors' tactic is past its sell-by date and, if you are into blame, there's an odd reluctance to pin most of the blame where it truly belonged in the first place - with the banks.

But would a further recession be so surprising? Not a bit of it! As I and many others have been saying all along, if you are already in or near a recession and you introduce deep cuts just what do you expect? The economy will be bouncing along the bottom - or worse - for years.

Well, the government expected the private sector to leap in and not only replace all the lost jobs and more but to produce overall growth in the climate of cutting. The least uncomplimentary way I can think of to describe this view is 'wishful thinking'. More likely paid advisors have been telling ministers what they wanted to hear - Tea Party level Reaganomics MkII.

There are three important factors in determining industrial expansion - demand, demand and demand. So what happens to consumer demand when you generate massive job losses and put those employees who survive the chop this time in fear of their jobs? Could there just possibly be a bit of a dip in domestic consumer demand? Could the reduced requirements for goods and services by national and local government, the health service etc possibly take the edge off business demand? And what about international demand?

Hey! How about this for a strategy: cut the domestic component and have an 'export-lead' recovery. So dazzlingly brilliant a wheeze that every other struggling economy to whom we export does the same! Result? Refer to Mr Micawber on an income of £19 - 19 - 6.

So what do we need to do? First stop the latest blame game - these are useless distractions. Second, increase the buying power of those on lower incomes. This could be done at no net cost to the exchequer by redistribution (more below) and would, as well as righting injustices, be stimulating through the Keynesian balanced budget multiplier (see previous postings). Third, scale back the cuts on the local government, health service and defence budgets.

Fourth, start a major programme of capital investment with incentives for firms and, most important of all, government led projects (such as a Severn barrage discussed elsewhere on this blog). HSII if you must - but don't believe those jobs figures and alternative transport projects including conventional upgrades would give a better result. Make sure that the contracts go to British companies (you can do this if you really want to), that employment is maximised and the opportunity to train young people taken up.

How to pay for this? The first thing to note is that the total net expenditure will be less than the apparent cost in economic stasis. The government seems to be realising that as the economy shrinks they miss their financial targets. The other side of this coin is that as the economy grows tax revenues increase and benefit payments reduce. But this process shouldn't be relied on to cover it all. There's no economic magic and we have our friends in 'the financial markets' to take into account. Oh what nice people they are (another story).

So, where's the money coming from? If you read most of the newspapers we're blessed with, experts are scratching their heads having considered all options. But wait! What's that elephant there in the corner? Could we just have overlooked the possibility of taxing the rich a bit more? OMG, think of all those directors who might up-stumps! But let's say we've heard 'wolf!' before and see if we could struggle along with a few less of the over-indulged variety anyway. I'm old enough to recall that when Mrs T's chancellor reduced the top rate of tax on the rich to 60% they thought they'd gone to heaven rather than just Switzerland. I'm not suggesting 60% again - I'm too kindly for that. So how about a total top deduction of around 55% inclusive of a flat rate NI over all income levels?

So there could be a Plan B after all! But will we see something like this? No more chance of this I fear than an Xmas time-warp, again a la Dickens, taking the government back to the 1930s for a refresher course on all that they have so clearly and so conveniently forgotten.

The Hungry Hobbit

How utterly pathetic and how absolutely typical of corporate anti-social attitudes these days. A local cafe a stone's throw from Sarehole Mill near to where JRR Tolkien grew up, has been threatened with legal action by lawyers working for a US film company. Wouldn't they be better employed chasing ambulances?

The Hungry Hobbit at the corner of Wake Green Road and Swanshurst Lane has been accused of copyright infringement by lawyers representing an outfit calling itself the Saul Zaentz Company (SZC). A household name if ever there wasn't one.

The company apparently owns the worldwide rights to several Tolkien 'brands' including The Hobbit and The Lord of The Rings. How on earth did this come to pass?

The cafe has traded responsibly under this name for the last six years and changing signs, menus, etc would be very costly for them. How unreasonable and how silly that they should be required to do so.

As a child JRR Tolkien lived in what is now Wake Green Road in what was then the village of Sarehole. Sarehole Mill across the way and Moseley Bog provided the inspiration for Tolkien's Shire and many of the places and people described in The Hobbit and The Lord of The Rings.

SZC's lawyers stated that "Only those who qualify for a trademark licence may use Hobbit and other marks registered by SZC". The letter states that use of the name Hobbit "is likely to cause confusion, mistake or deception among prospective purchasers, who are likely to believe that your business is licensed, authorised, sponsored or endorsed by SZC". Confusion? What utter rubbish! Who cares about SZC? Who has even heard of SZC before this? Things Hobbity are part of our local heritage and our national literary tradition. JRRT would have been disgusted.

I suggest that as many of us as possible now patronise The Hungry Hobbit by taking our 'second breakfast' there in true Hobbit style. Perhaps we should get hundreds of useful lawyers to see if a name change to The 'Ungry 'Obbit would pass muster! Meanwhile, pass the mustard!

The Age of Impatience

We are said to live in an age of austerity - as indeed we do and shall continue to do for many years. And there is much about today's society that is a lot less good than it was a few decades ago. Here, for example, I refer to values and conduct rather than technology and medicine.

We also inhabit an Age of  Impatience. This is often reflected in the use and setup of technical devices and worsened by adverse management practices that treat customers as punters to be dealt with (rather than served) quicker than is reasonably possible even when face to face.

We come across chronic impatience frequently on the phone (if we can contact a human being at all) and also in person at 'service' counters, for example in banks where staff do not seem to have the time or even the ability to concentrate in between distractions from their colleagues.

Incoming business landline calls, a high percentage of which are the detested robotic financial services plugs, often only give four or five rings which is never really enough if the phone is not directly to hand. Some personal callers have adopted this practice too, alas. Most mobile phones automatically end a call unless answered in a few rings.

Why do we do this? In some cases it's about money, in others it's a practice that has spread, unconsciously for many people, producing nervous and twitchy ways of living in as it were a personal 'short-now'. We do not need to do this and of course we can adjust as individuals when we become conscious of this habit.

There's been a campaign for some time (the Slow Movement) which seeks many ways of regaining a more human and civilised tempo. And if you'd like to find out about a project to give a really long term perspective, then there's a great book of essays entitled 'The Clock of the Long Now' and a website for the Long Now foundation - if we can find the time to visit it of course!